Tin Market in the Doldrums During the Midday Session as Downstream Stockpiling Nears Completion Ahead of the National Day Holiday [SMM Tin Midday Review]

At midday, the most-traded SHFE tin 2511 contract moved downwards after a higher opening. It opened at 274,070 yuan/mt in the morning session, up 520 yuan from the previous day, but futures then pulled back under pressure. By the midday close, it was at 271,950 yuan/mt, down 1,600 yuan or 0.58%. Trading was sluggish, with some funds choosing to take profits ahead of the holiday. Combined with rising risk aversion on the macro front, tin prices remained in the doldrums. On the LME, tin closed 0.07% higher at $34,415 overnight, but LME tin inventory rose to 2,775 mt, up 35 mt from the previous day. Support from low inventory coexists with pressure from inventory buildup, and LME tin may continue to fluctuate in the short term.

As the National Day holiday approaches, downstream stocking is nearing completion, and the spot market shows characteristics of "price without market." From a macro perspective, US PCE data met expectations, but a new round of tariff policies took effect on October 1. Escalating trade friction intensified market risk aversion, while the domestic policy window is approaching, and the market still expects stimulus measures.

In the short term, bullish and bearish factors for tin prices are intertwined: tight supply and low inventory support prices, but high prices curb downstream purchasing flexibility, and pre-holiday liquidity tightening suppresses futures momentum. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue consolidating in the afternoon, with a projected range of 270,000–274,000 yuan/mt. Investors should monitor progress on production resumptions at mines in Myanmar, guidance from US non-farm payrolls data, and changes in post-holiday policy expectations.